What Do the 2023 Town Election Results Mean?

The most interesting results from the 2023 Nottingham Town Election are:

• The 4% cap on the town budget was overwhelmingly retained 642 to 496. However, this was lower than the 745 to 462 margin that instituted the cap last year. 

• Despite this:

  • Candidates associated with being for the cap tended to lose and candidates explicitly opposed to the cap won.

  • Warrant articles proposing spending all passed by wide margins.

• Candidates associated with the Free State movement had a rough time, with 2 out of 3 losing, with the sole winner prevailing over a write-in candidate.

• 2 of the 5 incumbents lost.

• The two incumbents who lost were involved in a confrontation with each other at a Budget Committee meeting. 

• About 1,200 people voted, only about half of the roughly 2,470 voters in the November 2022 election. 

• The proposed 10% cap to the school budget was defeated, with 568 in favor of the cap versus 547 opposed on an issue requiring a 3/5ths majority.

• On the school ballot, candidates endorsed by the Republicans all won whereas on the town ballot candidates endorsed by the Democrats all won, except for one write-in.

• The town’s Republican and Democrat factions seem evenly divided at no more than about 430 each, and there are at least around 350 voters who split their tickets. 

My interpretations of these results are as follows. What do you think? Answer the reader poll questions below.

Controversy Weighs Candidates Down

Candidates associated with controversy did poorly. 

Don’t Spend! Except for This, That, the Other Thing, and This too….

Fiscal constraint remains a highly popular principle, especially associated with spending buried in the operating budget. However, the voters are open to being persuaded to spend on specific warrant articles. They may prefer this sense of control rather than handing it to their elected representatives. This would suggest a path for the Board of Selectmen for dealing with a tax cap that will again this year be below the rate of inflation by creating warrant articles to address the income shortfall. For example, a warrant article to provide a one-time cost-of-living salary increase for town employees would plausibly get voter approval whereas trying to make room for such an expenditure in the operating budget will likely be difficult.

Why Didn’t the Republicans Win More Seats If They Did So Well on the Tax Cap?

Despite the overwhelming support for retaining the town’s 4% tax cap - a position strongly supported by the Republicans - Republican-endorsed candidates did poorly on the town ballot, with one incumbent losing re-election. On the other hand, Republicans swept the two School Board positions, ousting an incumbent. This suggests that while it appears that the voters lean in favor of the Republicans’ strong anti-spending positioning, the Republicans had issues elsewhere with their messaging and the voters’ perceptions of the candidates’ qualifications. Certainly, disputes about the accuracy of claims in this election were a major controversy. Perhaps the voters were persuaded by the Democrats’ complaints about the Republicans’ claims. This suggests the Republicans would have done better on the town ballot had they put forward candidates who were more conservative with their behavior and messaging, like the Republicans on the school ballot.

Ambiguity about the School Tax Cap

An opportunity appears to exist for capping the school budget at a figure lower than 10%; however, to do so supporters of the cap will need to show up for the school deliberative session. 

The School and the Culture War

While no candidate for School Board made culture war issues part of their campaign, issues with books in the school’s library gained a lot of attention last year and would seem to have influenced voters in this election. 

Have other opinions? Post them in the comments.